America’s big but uncertain gas boom

See more from Canary Media’s ​“Chart of the Week” column.

Developers are planning to build an enormous amount of natural gas-fired power plants in the U.S., fueled in large part by the AI boom. The expansion is a serious threat to the nation’s decarbonization efforts — but because so much gas development remains speculative, it’s tough to discern the exact magnitude.

Nearly 380 gigawatts of gas power plants have been announced or are under development in the U.S., per a new report from Global Energy Monitor. Gas is already the nation’s biggest source of electricity and a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Roughly 500 GW of capacity is online today.

Not all of that new capacity will be built. The majority of these projects have yet to break ground; many lack permits or customers. Most projects tied specifically to data centers have yet to confirm if they’ve locked down ever-elusive gas turbines. And while a chunk of these power plants hope to circumvent the grid and power data centers directly, most will seek interconnection — a process from which a whopping 75% of capacity has historically dropped out, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

These figures are also inflated by AI exuberance. What actually gets built will depend, to a substantial degree, on the strength and durability of demand for AI services. Many of the largest projects — and they are really big — are tied to data center plans that are far from a certainty.

Report author Jenny Martos put it bluntly to Axios: ​“It is nearly impossible nowadays to guess what is a pie-in-the-sky proposal, and what has a real chance of getting built.”

But I don’t want to downplay the 52 GW of gas that’s already under construction. It’s more than any other country is building, which makes sense given that the U.S. is by far the largest producer of natural gas in the world.

Also, the numbers keep going up in the U.S. The topline figure — in this case 379 GW — is 50% higher than it was six months ago. It may not all materialize, but clearly interest in the power source is surging from already high levels.

Competition for power-plant equipment has grown fierce amid the development frenzy. Companies that don’t want to wait around for the most efficient type of gas turbine to become available are turning instead to dirtier options. About one-quarter of projects tied to data centers are opting for combustion engines instead of the cleaner combined-cycle gas turbines.

So, to summarize: The U.S. is building gas at a faster pace — even if not quite as fast as the data suggest — and developers are increasingly reaching for dirtier equipment to make it happen. 

Canary Media’s ​“Chart of the Week” series is supported by Amazon. Amazon is known for speed and scale. That same approach drives their sustainability efforts. Guided by data and science, and powered by invention, Amazon works backward from ambitious targets to drive measurable progress. Every package delivered, every data center powered, every product designed is an opportunity to make tomorrow better.