Global emissions set to peak in 2024 thanks to EVs, clean energy

In 2024, global carbon emissions will peak — reaching their highest levels ever — then, they’ll begin to decline.

That’s according to a new report from the independent research firm DNV, which found that the rapid rise of renewables and electrification has put the world on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050.

That’s far out of step with global climate goals. To avoid warming the planet by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius — the limit determined in the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change — emissions would need to halve far sooner than that, by 2030. Along the current trajectory, DNV predicts the atmosphere will warm 2.2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

Still, ​“It’s really a milestone,” according to Sverre Alvik, an author of the report and program director of the energy transition outlook at DNV. ​“Instead of saying that we’re on the wrong track, we can say that we’re on the right track, although we’re still at the wrong pace.”

The world is managing to bend the curve on emissions due to the mass adoption of solar, batteries, and electric vehicles. These emissions-free technologies are helping to displace fossil fuels; next year, renewables could surpass coal, per an International Energy Agency forecast released last week.

Annual solar installations increased 80 percent last year, a major factor putting the global power sector on track to reduce its consumption of coal, the dirtiest source of electricity. Meanwhile, battery prices dropped 14 percent last year, a development that makes solar even more appealing: Cheaper batteries mean it is more cost-effective to store and tap into surplus solar power produced during the day.

Solar installations are expected to shatter records again this year — and it’s worth noting that solar has consistently outperformed forecasts, rising faster than experts predict. Even in DNV’s report, ​“We might be underestimating it again,” Alvik said. ​“It is possible that we could see an even steeper growth than what we have.”

The falling cost of batteries also has implications for electric vehicle sales, which are increasing despite turbulence in some markets. Battery prices, along with electric vehicle costs, should continue to fall in the years to come, DNV predicts. Last year, EVs accounted for 13 percent of all new vehicle sales globally; by 2031, the report estimates that EVs will make up half of global auto sales.

No country is installing more renewables or adopting more EVs than China, and its massive markets and manufacturing power have helped drive down the cost of clean energy technologies worldwide. As just one example, China produced nearly 90 percent of the world’s solar panels in 2023 — and more than half were used at solar installations in the country itself.

China is still the world’s largest consumer of coal and emitter of CO2, but its rapid uptake of solar and wind mean its dependence on fossil fuels will fall rapidly in the coming years, DNV predicts. Gasoline use in China is also declining from its 2023 peak thanks to the country’s embrace of EVs, which made up a third of new car registrations last year.

The country’s clean energy progress led to a spate of recent projections that China’s carbon emissions have already peaked, years before its pledge to begin reducing emissions by 2030.

Emissions have been tapering off for several years in a number of high income countries, including the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. In lower income countries, emissions are still increasing ​“and that will continue for a while,” Alvik said. But that won’t be enough to change the overall direction of emissions. ​“The sum of countries [whose emissions are] on their way down is now, for the first time, passing the sum of the countries who are on their way up,” he said.

The report was careful not to assume that every region will reach its stated goals. Europe, for example, aims to reach zero emission by 2050. But in DNV’s model, it is assumed that Europe will reduce emissions 85 percent by 2050, not 100 percent.

Policy changes, like emission reduction mandates, government incentives, and carbon pricing, could help reduce emissions even faster, possibly limiting warming to less than 2.2 degrees. ​“Policy is the lever where there is the most potential,” Alvik said.